Friday, December 11th, 2015

The prospect of a wet test match in Hobart highlights the unwelcome cricketing outcome of "rain stops play".

The Duckworth Lewis method is accepted by the International Cricket Council (ICC) as the algorithm for deciding the results of one-day cricket matches that have been interrupted by rain.

But Associate Professor Andrew Metcalfe, from the University of Adelaide’s School of Mathematical Sciences, with fellow cricket enthusiasts John Turner and Julia Piotto (both alumni of the University of Adelaide), have proposed an alternative Player Specific Method (PSM).

The PSM – presented at the 12th Engineering Mathematics and Applications Conference, EMAC2015, held in Adelaide this week – models the performance of batsmen against different types of bowlers and the likely remaining time in an innings, and then uses computer simulation to generate and predict expected outcomes.

The PSM can be run in an adaptive mode that takes account of prevailing conditions and player form during early stages of the match. The advantage of the PSM over the Duckworth Lewis method (Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method since November 2014) is that the PSM allows for the performance of particular players in teams during the match rather than relying on the average results of all teams.
In discussion at the conference, it was suggested that the PSM could also be used within the sport gambling industry to set odds for teams to win test matches, and by test captains to find the best batting order, which can be rejigged during the match.

Media Contact:

Associate Professor Andrew Metcalfe
School of Mathematical Sciences
The University of Adelaide
Mobile: +61 (0)458 606 370
Phone: +61 8 8313 3236
[email protected]

David Ellis
Media and Communications Officer
Marketing & Communications

The University of Adelaide
South Australia 5005
Phone:  +61 (0)8 8313 5414
Mobile:  +61 (0)421 612 762
e-mail: [email protected]


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Alternative Duckworth Lewis method proposed cricket



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