Wednesday, May 8th, 2013

Today’s Morgan Poll shows a strong improvement for the Opposition with the L-NP (58%, up 3.5%) substantially increasing its lead over the ALP (42%, down 3.5%) on the weekend before Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced a Federal Budget ‘blowout’ to a $12 billion deficit, despite promising for years that the 2012/13 Federal Budget would be in surplus. Today’s Morgan Poll is a similar result to the Morgan Poll at the start of April which showed the L-NP (59%) cf. ALP (41%) on a two-party preferred basis.

Last weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll shows support for the L-NP dropping to 56% (down 2% since April 26-28, 2013) cf. ALP 44% (up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.

The L-NP primary vote is 46% (down 2%) well ahead of the ALP 32% (up 1.5%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (down 2.5%) and Independents/ Others are 13.5% (up 3%).

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would win the election easily according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last few days, May 3-5, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,376 Australian electors aged 18+.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell sharply to 96pts (down 9.5 in a week) with 38% (down 3.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 42% (up 6%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows an improvement for the Government with the ALP (44%, up 2%) gaining on the L-NP (56%, down 2%), although the Coalition retains a strong election-winning two-party preferred lead only four months before the September 14 Federal Election.

“The rise in support for the Gillard Government follows Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s announcement of a funding plan for the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) last week. New South Wales Premier Barry O’Farrell had already signed Australia’s largest State onto the NDIS when it was first announced last December and in a further boost for the Government, late last week Victorian Premier Denis Napthine signed onto the NDIS, which will involve an increase in the Medicare Levy paid by taxpayers annually to 2% (up 0.5%).

“The Prime Minister’s NDIS has attracted clear community support with a special Morgan Poll question asked online of 1,130 respondents over the last few days showing a clear majority of Australian electors (58%) support funding the NDIS via an increase to the Medicare Levy compared to 34% that don’t and 8% that can’t say.

“However, when asked about the Federal Budget Deficit – which last week Prime Minister Gillard announced would be in deficit by $12 billion this year – 67.5% of Australian electors are concerned about the Federal Budget Deficit compared to 28.5% that aren’t, while 4% can’t say and 68.5% of Australian electors believe it is important to return the Federal Budget to surplus while only 24.5% don’t think it is important and 7% can’t say.

“The problem for the Gillard Government is that a clear majority of Australian electors (57.5%) believe the L-NP is the best party at delivering a Federal Budget Surplus compared to only 12.5% that say the ALP while a further 26.5% can’t say and 3.5% nominate another party.”

Read the full article here

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Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research is Australia’s best known and longest established market research and public opinion survey company. Roy Morgan Single Source is thorough, accurate, and provides comprehensive, directly applicable information about current and future customers. It is unique in that it directs all the questions to each individual from a base survey sample of around 55,000 interviews in Australia and 15,000 interviews in New Zealand annually - the largest Single Source databases in the world. The questions asked relate to lifestyle and attitudes, media consumption habits (including TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, cinema, catalogues, pay TV and the Internet), brand and product usage, purchase intentions, retail visitations, service provider preferences, financial information and recreation and leisure activities. This lead product is supported by a nationally networked, consultancy-orientated market research capability.
Shaun Ellis
P: 03 9224 5332


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