Saturday, September 14th, 2013
An estimated 2,172,000 Australians are intending to buy a new car in the next 4 years. This is down on the August result of 2,204,000 but remains almost 100,000 units above the long-term average1 of 2,082,000. These results are from the latest Roy Morgan ‘Leading Indicators’ Report for September 2012.
In the shorter term, an estimated 584,000 Australians intend to buy a new car in the next 12 months, a decline of 5,000 vehicles since the August 2012 result of 589,000 and remaining below the long-term average2 of 616,000.

New Car Buying Intention

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia): April 2002 – September 2012, n=587,549 (avg. quarterly sample n = 13,665).
1Long Term Average = Four year new car buying intention, April 2002 – September 2012.
2Long Term Average = One year new car buying intention, April 2002 – September 2012.

Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan Research, says:
“With September again showing record new vehicle sales, it will be intriguing to see if the industry can keep up this level of volume over the coming 12 months, in spite of consumer new car buying intention still weakening, with both short and long term levels marginally down.

“Consumer confidence has remained stable around the 112 mark for September, in the face of extensive media scrutiny suggesting the mining boom may be coming to an end and increasing concerns over Australia’s financial outlook.

“Roy Morgan Research’s current unemployment level for Australia – moving up to 10% in September – is likely to also concern the auto industry.  Higher levels of unemployment do not bode well for the Auto industry which will undoubtedly hoping the RBA will further lower interest rates in the coming months to further stimulate the economy.

“It’s not bad news for all the brands, with Toyota, Holden and Ford all improving on their intention figure since August.  Toyota has moved above 20% for the first time since early 2010, with the Corolla, Camry and the Hilux the models most favoured by new car intending purchasers.

“The complete Roy Morgan Automotive Leading Indicators Report delivers detailed coverage of the health of the Australian automotive market.”

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Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research is Australia’s best known and longest established market research and public opinion survey company. Roy Morgan Single Source is thorough, accurate, and provides comprehensive, directly applicable information about current and future customers. It is unique in that it directs all the questions to each individual from a base survey sample of around 55,000 interviews in Australia and 15,000 interviews in New Zealand annually - the largest Single Source databases in the world. The questions asked relate to lifestyle and attitudes, media consumption habits (including TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, cinema, catalogues, pay TV and the Internet), brand and product usage, purchase intentions, retail visitations, service provider preferences, financial information and recreation and leisure activities. This lead product is supported by a nationally networked, consultancy-orientated market research capability.
Shaun Ellis
P: 03 9224 5332


Ford, Holden, Toyota



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