Friday, September 14th, 2012
According to the latest Roy Morgan Leading Indicators Report for August 2012, an estimated 2,206,000 Australians (excluding fleet government & rental buyers) are intending to buy a new car in the next 4 years. This is down on the July result of 2,253,000 but remains well above the long-term average1 of 2,082,000. These results come from the Roy Morgan Single Source survey of over 50,000 interviews annually.
In the shorter term, an estimated 589,000 Australians intend to buy a new car in the next 12 months a decline of 37,000 vehicles since the July 2012 figure of 626,000 and has fallen below the long-term average2 of 616,000.

New Car Buying Intention

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia): April 2002 – August 2012, (average quarterly sample n = 13,677). 1Long Term Average = Four year new car buying intention, April 2002 – August 2012. 2Long Term Average = One year new car buying intention, April 2002 – August 2012.

Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan Research, says:
“While the four year intention is still well above the long-term average, the 12 month intention has continued its recent decline, reporting the lowest figure since September 2010. Despite another strong month in new vehicle sales for August, a declining short term intention result does not bode particularly well for the final few months of the year and it will be up to manufacturers to ensure sales do not decline over the remainder of 2012.

“In terms of which volume segments are driving the overall decline in short term intentions, the number of people in the market for a ‘Medium, under $60K’ vehicle has almost halved since May, whilst the ‘Large, under $70K’ segment continues its long term decline with only 8.1% of short term intentions.

“The total passenger vehicle category is down by almost 100,000 units since May this year, with only one segment showing any positive signs. The Sports < $80K segment has more than doubled over the last three months, with almost all the gains to be attributed to the recently introduced Toyota 86 & Subaru BRZ.”

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Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research is Australia’s best known and longest established market research and public opinion survey company. Roy Morgan Single Source is thorough, accurate, and provides comprehensive, directly applicable information about current and future customers. It is unique in that it directs all the questions to each individual from a base survey sample of around 55,000 interviews in Australia and 15,000 interviews in New Zealand annually - the largest Single Source databases in the world. The questions asked relate to lifestyle and attitudes, media consumption habits (including TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, cinema, catalogues, pay TV and the Internet), brand and product usage, purchase intentions, retail visitations, service provider preferences, financial information and recreation and leisure activities. This lead product is supported by a nationally networked, consultancy-orientated market research capability.
Shaun Ellis
P: 03 9224 5332


Automotive, Cars, Buying Intention, Auto



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