Tuesday, February 7th, 2012

According to the latest Roy Morgan Leading Indicators Report for December 2011, an estimated 2,263,000 Australians (excluding fleet government & rental buyers) are intending to buy a new car in the next 4 years. This is up on the November result of 2,233,000 and remains above the long-term average of 2,068,000.

In the shorter term an estimated 648,000 Australians intend to buy a new car in the next 12 months a marginal improvement on the November 2011 figure of 641,000 and 5.9% above the short-term average(2) of 612,000.

New Car Buying Intention

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia): April 2002 – December 2011, n=538,231 (average quarterly sample n = 13,684). 1 - Long Term Average = Four year new car buying intention, April 2002 – December 2011. 2 - Short Term Average = One year new car buying intention, April 2002 – December 2011.

Over the next four years the greatest gains are likely to come from Toyota, Ford and Volkswagen.

New Car Buying Intention by brand

Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Despite the natural disasters in Japan and Thailand and resulting stock related issues, many of the major manufacturers faced in 2011, the automotive industry still managed to exceed 1 million new vehicle sales for only the 4th time in history. 2012 looks likely to be a potential record year for the industry with both long and short term intentions finishing the year on a positive note.

“For the fourth consecutive month, long term new car buying intentions have improved; finishing the year on an all time record high, with more than 2.26 million Australian in the market for a new car in the next 4 years.

“In November, the RBA cut interest rates for the first time since April 2009, having an immediate positive impact on Consumer Confidence. With a further interest rate cut in December, the Automotive Industry appears to be one industry benefiting from these decisions.

“Of the mainstream brands, Volkswagen and Ford have shown the greatest improvement over the last 12 months, with both manufactures posting improvements of at least 20% year on year. BMW and Mercedes-Benz look likely to continue their struggle in 2012 to be the top luxury passenger vehicle seller, with both brands posting strong improvements.

“The complete Roy Morgan Automotive Leading Indicators Report delivers detailed coverage of the health of the Australian automotive market."

To learn more about automotive intentions for the different vehicle types, purchase our detailed Automotive Currency Report, which covers intentions to purchase new vehicles, future intentions and recent sales, loyalty and satisfaction, brand health, automotive attitudes, car servicing and use of the internet for vehicle related content. Brands are reported individually within three distinct groups; Local Manufacturers (Toyota, Holden and Ford), Mid Volume Importers (Mazda, Mitsubishi, Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Volkswagen and Hyundai) and Luxury Brands (BMW, Mercedes Benz, Audi and Lexus).

Our latest detailed Roy Morgan 
Automotive Currency Report
is available. Our extensive range of 
new car intender profiles by make, model and segment covers brands like Honda, BMW, Holden, Mazda, Ford, Mercedes-Benz, Subaru, Mitsubishi, Nissan and Volkswagen.

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Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research is Australia’s best known and longest established market research and public opinion survey company. Roy Morgan Single Source is thorough, accurate, and provides comprehensive, directly applicable information about current and future customers. It is unique in that it directs all the questions to each individual from a base survey sample of around 55,000 interviews in Australia and 15,000 interviews in New Zealand annually - the largest Single Source databases in the world. The questions asked relate to lifestyle and attitudes, media consumption habits (including TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, cinema, catalogues, pay TV and the Internet), brand and product usage, purchase intentions, retail visitations, service provider preferences, financial information and recreation and leisure activities. This lead product is supported by a nationally networked, consultancy-orientated market research capability.
Shaun Ellis
P: 03 9224 5332
W: www.roymorgan.com


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