Friday, December 16th, 2011
According to the latest Roy Morgan Leading Indicators Report for October 2011, an estimated 2,182,000 Australians (excluding fleet government & rental buyers) are intending to buy a new car in the next 4 years. This is up on the September result of 2,120,000 and remains above the long-term average1 of 2,065,000.

In the shorter term an estimated 629,000 Australians intend to buy a new car in the next 12 months a marginal improvement on the September 2011 figure of 625,000 and 18,000 above the short-term average2 of 611,000.

New Car Buying Intention

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia): April 2002 – October 2011, n=538,788 (average quarterly sample n = 13,690). 1Long Term Average = Four year new car buying intention, April 2002 – October 2011.2Short Term Average = One year new car buying intention, April 2002 – October 2011.

Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan Research, says:

 “According to VFACTS, new vehicle sales in October improved by 5.3% on October 2010, with the YTD figure now only 2.8% below parity. It’s good to see that both intention metrics are back up again in October, suggesting that the Automotive Industry looks on track to hit the 1 million sales mark again in 2011.

“At a brand level, Ford has posted its highest long-term intention result all year, with the newly introduced Focus and Ranger showing the greatest model improvements.

“Of the other mainstream brands, Hyundai was also up strongly over the recent term, moving ahead of Mitsubishi, Nissan & Volkswagen with almost 5% of total long term intentions.

“With the Auto Industry needing to sell just over 80,000 vehicles in each of the remaining months to hit 1 million new vehicle sales for 2011, these healthy new car buying intention figures indicate that this looks likely.

“The complete Roy Morgan Automotive Leading Indicators Report delivers detailed coverage of the health of the Australian automotive market.”

The latest detailed Roy Morgan Leading Indicators - Car Buying Intention report provides a detailed understanding of those people who are intending to buy a new vehicle in the next four years. The report is based on five years of trended car buying intention data. Within this data are graphical snapshots of how car buying intention within the next four years fluctuates with consumer confidence levels, the difference between new and used purchasing intentions, as well as car buying intention over the next one year. It also breaks down car buying intention in the next four years into vehicle type (passenger, SUV and commercial) and the various sub-categories within these. Another useful aspect of this report is a breakdown of car buying intention in the next four years into city and country regions, states, gender, household lifecycle status (young singles, mid-life families and older households), and socio-economic scale and Roy Morgan value segments.

An extensive range of detailed Roy Morgan new car intender profiles is available by make, model and segment covering brands like Honda, BMW, Holden, Mazda, Ford, Mercedes-Benz, Subaru, Mitsubishi, Nissan and Volkswagen.

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Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research is Australia’s best known and longest established market research and public opinion survey company. Roy Morgan Single Source is thorough, accurate, and provides comprehensive, directly applicable information about current and future customers. It is unique in that it directs all the questions to each individual from a base survey sample of around 55,000 interviews in Australia and 15,000 interviews in New Zealand annually - the largest Single Source databases in the world. The questions asked relate to lifestyle and attitudes, media consumption habits (including TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, cinema, catalogues, pay TV and the Internet), brand and product usage, purchase intentions, retail visitations, service provider preferences, financial information and recreation and leisure activities. This lead product is supported by a nationally networked, consultancy-orientated market research capability.
Shaun Ellis
P: 03 9224 5332


Long term new car buying intentions



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