The 5S and 5C iPhones have failed to recapture Apple’s former lead over Samsung among imminent phone buyers, early indicators from Roy Morgan Research reveal.
In April 2013, Samsung launched its Galaxy S4—and overtook Apple as the brand more near-term new phone intenders (purchasing within the next three months) say they plan to buy.
In the few months leading up to the release of the 5S and 5C models in September, intention among these prospective buyers shot up for Apple and started to flatten for Samsung, perhaps as prospective buyers waited to see what Apple’s new models would offer. With less than 1% point in it, Apple looked set to reclaim the lead—but then its phones came out: Apple actually declined and Samsung rose again. As one parody ad put it, the ‘S’ in 5S stands for ‘Same’.
Proportion of ‘Within Next Three Months’ phone buyers intending to buy Apple or Samsung
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (New Zealand), November 2008 – October 2013, rolling 12 month average annual n= 670 New Zealanders 14+ who intend to buy a new phone within next three months
Intention for both brands has increased exponentially over the past few years, as smartphones moved into the mainstream and the dominance of former market leader Nokia quickly faded.
In the year to October 2013, 30% of imminent buyers said they intend to buy a Samsung—around double the rate a year before, and triple the rate the year before that.
Throughout 2012, up to 30% of near-term Kiwis buyers said they still didn’t know which brand they would buy; this has since declined to under 25% as intenders increasingly nominate Apple or Samsung.
Pip Elliott, General Manager, Roy Morgan Research NZ, says:
“These results show that Samsung has been more successful than Apple in leveraging anticipation about its latest into actual post-launch purchase intention. Over the coming months, we’ll see how this intention translates into sales. As of October, Apple and Samsung were neck and neck among smartphone owners, each with a touch under 30% of the market.
“In the year to October 2013, we asked over 600 short-term prospective buyers for their opinions on mobile phone brands. The iPhone scores highly on ‘leading edge technology’ (61% vs 49% for Samsung), ‘has lots of features (59% vs 44%) and ‘looks and feels good’ (52% vs 44%). Samsung, however, outperforms Apple on matters of brand trust, likeability, affinity, and value for money.
“These issues correlate strongly to Technology Adoption Segments. Early Adopters seeking new technology, features and style lean toward Apple; but Older Tech Explorers, Technology Traditionalists and Technophobes place more value on Samsung’s perceived qualities. And while Early Adopters already have an iPhone, the latter groups are now entering the market—and heading for Samsung.
“Our latest research shows that 40% of New Zealanders now have a smartphone, and 22% intend to buy or upgrade within the next year—that’s a potential 780,000 phones sold.”
Roy Morgan Research
Roy Morgan Research is Australia’s best known and longest established market research and public opinion survey company. Roy Morgan Single Source is thorough, accurate, and provides comprehensive, directly applicable information about current and future customers. It is unique in that it directs all the questions to each individual from a base survey sample of around 55,000 interviews in Australia and 15,000 interviews in New Zealand annually - the largest Single Source databases in the world. The questions asked relate to lifestyle and attitudes, media consumption habits (including TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, cinema, catalogues, pay TV and the Internet), brand and product usage, purchase intentions, retail visitations, service provider preferences, financial information and recreation and leisure activities. This lead product is supported by a nationally networked, consultancy-orientated market research capability.
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