Monday, August 19th, 2013 - Roy Morgan Research
Last weekend (August 16-18, 2013) with only three weeks to go until the Federal Election, the L-NP has taken the lead – L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% on a two-party preferred basis. Just one week ago, before the first Leaders Debate the Morgan Poll showed the ALP and L-NP equal on 50%.

The ALP primary vote is 36.5% (unchanged), behind the L-NP primary vote at 44.5% (up 0.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 9.5% (down 1%) and support for Independents/ Others is 9.5% (up 0.5%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen in the past week – up 3pts to 104. Now 42.5% (up 2%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 38.5% (down 1%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would be heading for a narrow victory according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,515 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of 2PP vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (49%) cf. L-NP (51%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors gave their preferences at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll, Fairfax Nielsen and Galaxy – the Morgan Poll shows a clear lead for the L-NP (52%, up 0.5%) cf. ALP (48%, down 0.5%).

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Women favouring the ALP (51.5%, down 0.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5%, up 0.5%) on a two party preferred basis and Men even more heavily favouring the L-NP 53.5% (up 1.5%) cf. ALP 46.5% (down 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today the L-NP is just in front – L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%. A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted mid-week only days after the Leaders Debate showed the L-NP well ahead (L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%). Although telephone polls tend to be biased towards the L-NP (some pollsters overcome this bias by weighting the results by ‘past vote’), it is likely that the L-NP gained ground with the debate and in the immediate aftermath in which Rudd was attacked for using notes and then lost some of the gains with Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s ‘sex appeal’ comment and the Coalition’s refusal to explain how they would balance the Budget.

“This Federal Election is very different to the last election. Financial issues like Cost of living, High taxes and the Economy are much more important (29%) compared to (17%) before the last election. The Environment has fallen to almost a non-issue (7%, compared to 17% before the last election).

“Although the L-NP is traditionally seen as better for ‘Managing the Economy’, they will not win this issue until they can gain the trust of the electorate that they will navigate the country through difficult economic times even though they have not yet provided detailed policy costings.

“Kevin Rudd must win this week’s Town Hall debate in Queensland to regain momentum lost in the past week. The Roy Morgan Reactor results analysed by voting preference will be shown live during the debate on www.roymorgan.com.”

View the full release here

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Roy Morgan Research is Australia’s best known and longest established market research and public opinion survey company. Roy Morgan Single Source is thorough, accurate, and provides comprehensive, directly applicable information about current and future customers. It is unique in that it directs all the questions to each individual from a base survey sample of around 55,000 interviews in Australia and 15,000 interviews in New Zealand annually - the largest Single Source databases in the world. The questions asked relate to lifestyle and attitudes, media consumption habits (including TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, cinema, catalogues, pay TV and the Internet), brand and product usage, purchase intentions, retail visitations, service provider preferences, financial information and recreation and leisure activities. This lead product is supported by a nationally networked, consultancy-orientated market research capability.
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Labor Liberal Party poll

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