Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence survey in July showed an increase following four consecutive months of decline. The July result of 117.3 was well up on the on the June figure of 112.7 and represents a tentative positive sign for economic recovery in Australia. At the same time the Roy Morgan Research Consumer Confidence survey in July also improved to 116.2, up from 114.6 in July. These results are from 2681 interviews with business decision makers across Australia and 4165 consumers in July before the $30 billion budget ‘blow-out’ announced Friday August 2nd by Chris Bower, Consumer Confidence fell immediately. Roy Morgan Research is in the unique position of being able to take a more holistic view of confidence in Australia by measuring the confidence of both businesses and consumers.
The July improvement in Business Confidence was due to an increase in the number of businesses reporting that they were feeling positive about economic conditions in Australia over the next 12 months which has gone up to 62% in July from 58% in June. This improvement in economic outlook for the next 12 months has obviously impacted positively on business investment intentions with 55% now considering that the next 12 months would be a good time “to invest in growing the business” up from 52% in June.
All states except NSW showed some improvement in business confidence in July. Tasmania and Victoria are the most confident states. The downturn in the mining industry is obviously having a big impact on business sentiment in WA which has fallen back to around average after having been well ahead for some time.
The most positive industry remains “Finance and Insurance” (132.1) followed by “Education and Training” (128.6) and “Information media and telecommunications” (127.6). Confidence level in the “Manufacturing” sector remains well below average (106.3) and shows a small sign of improvement. The “Construction” industry still remains below average (106.6) and as such is unlikely to make up for the contraction in the mining industry that is hoped for. The high profile “Retail” sector confidence remains around average but has declined to the lowest level in 2013 and remains a major concern.
These Business Confidence results also align with the improvement in the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increasing from 114.6 in June to 116.2 in July. Both Roy Morgan confidence figures are based on interviews conducted throughout the month.
Source: Business Confidence, Roy Morgan Business Single Source (Australia), average monthly sample n = 2,204; Consumer Confidence, Roy Morgan Single Source (Australian), average monthly sample n = 4,269.
Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan Research, says:
“Business confidence in Australia has improved for the first time in five months due to a number of positive factors impacting on business in Australia. These include an increase of 5.2% in the ASX 200 over the month, the end of the government wrangling with the electing of Kevin Rudd as PM, and the abolition of the carbon tax. The continual decline in the value of Australian dollar was also a positive factor for many industries. On the negative side there was still concern over the global economy, the China slowdown and no interest rate cut in July by the RBA.
“The improvement in consumer confidence in July was also as a result of largely the same influences that impacted business outlook but the smaller improvements seen in consumer confidence was also likely to be partly the result of no further decline in the home loan rate. Consumers are feeling far more positive however about conditions being better in the next 12 months and this is driving up their confidence. The decline in the official cash rate in early August is likely to have a positive impact on both business and consumer confidence in August.”
Roy Morgan - B2B
Australia’s leading B2B market research These findings are from the Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey, the most comprehensive B2B research in Australia which interviews over 30,000 business decision makers p.a. The research covers business confidence, telecommunications, banking & finance and business media use which can be analysed by number of employees, annual turnover, head office and operating locations, sources of revenue and financial performance and expectations. Ready Made Research reports include Business Confidence and Business Banking Satisfaction.
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