This week’s Morgan Poll is unchanged. The ALP 52.5% would still win election ahead of the L-NP 47.5% on a two-party preferred basis.
The ALP primary vote is 41.5% (down 0.5%), just ahead of the L-NP primary vote at 41% (unchanged).
Among the minor parties Greens support is 9% (up 2%) and support for Independents/ Others is 8.5% (down 1.5%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%.
For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of Two-Party preferred vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:
The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors voted at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll and Fairfax Nielsen – the Morgan Poll shows a slightly closer result: ALP (52%, up 0.5%) cf. L-NP (48%, down 0.5%).
Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.
If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved in the last week – up 5.5pts to 115 – the highest since November 2012 (116.5). Now 48.5% (up 3.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 33.5% (down 2%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows Women swinging back to the ALP this week and still clearly favour the ALP (55.5%, up 2.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%, down 2.5%) on a two party preferred basis. Men are evenly split: ALP 50% (unchanged) cf. L-NP 50% (unchanged).
Gary Morgan says:
“The Papua New Guinea ‘Solution’ has helped the ALP maintain their winning position and resulted in a 2% increase in support for the Greens.”
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Roy Morgan Research is Australia’s best known and longest established market research and public opinion survey company. Roy Morgan Single Source is thorough, accurate, and provides comprehensive, directly applicable information about current and future customers. It is unique in that it directs all the questions to each individual from a base survey sample of around 55,000 interviews in Australia and 15,000 interviews in New Zealand annually - the largest Single Source databases in the world. The questions asked relate to lifestyle and attitudes, media consumption habits (including TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, cinema, catalogues, pay TV and the Internet), brand and product usage, purchase intentions, retail visitations, service provider preferences, financial information and recreation and leisure activities. This lead product is supported by a nationally networked, consultancy-orientated market research capability.
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