According to the latest Roy Morgan automotive data, 90,000 Australians intend to buy a Ford Falcon (including G-Series and Ute) or Ford Territory within the next four years. With Ford ceasing Australian manufacture in 2016, the two remaining local car manufacturers stand to benefit from at least some of these Ford intenders going with their secondary choices.
Among Falcon and Territory intenders, around 50% are only considering one model. However, should the remaining 50% go with their second, third or fourth preference, Holden and Toyota are best positioned to gain.
Among those intending to buy a Ford Falcon, Holden is the most popular second choice, with 29% consideration: positive news for the recently launched VF Commodore. Toyota and Mazda are next in line for some potential cross-consideration benefits, at 13.5% and 9.3% respectively.
It’s the other way around among Ford Territory intenders, with 27.5% considering a Toyota as an alternative, followed by 14.2% considering Holden.
Source (chart 1):Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia): Ford Falcon Intenders considering more than one brand, April 2011 – March 2013, n = 144
Source (chart 2): Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia): Ford Territory Intenders considering more than one brand, April 2011 – March 2013, n = 95
Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan Research, says:
“With Ford pulling out of local manufacturing in 2016, Holden and Toyota are positioned to be the main beneficiaries should potential buyers of Falcon and Territory go with their second or third choices.
“While car brands manufacturing in Australia have traditionally held a large proportion of the market, competition has increased dramatically over the last decade. Not only are more Australians moving towards SUV-style vehicles, they’ve also got a wider choice of brands than ever before.
“Australia’s high dollar over the last 12 months and apparent resilience to the tight international economic situation has also opened the way for less expensive, and generally better optioned, imported vehicles from countries such as Thailand.
“Over the last few years, Australians are buying more new cars than ever, with around 49 new vehicles sold per thousand people in 2012*. This makes Australia one of the world’s highest-volume markets per capita – with imported vehicles dominating the top seller lists month after month in recent times.
“With sales up 4.5% YTD*, 2013 could be another record year in the making, although the recent decline in the Aussie dollar could impact this result.”
* VFACTS data for sales 2012, ABS data for population 2012
Roy Morgan Research
Roy Morgan Research is Australia’s best known and longest established market research and public opinion survey company. Roy Morgan Single Source is thorough, accurate, and provides comprehensive, directly applicable information about current and future customers. It is unique in that it directs all the questions to each individual from a base survey sample of around 55,000 interviews in Australia and 15,000 interviews in New Zealand annually - the largest Single Source databases in the world. The questions asked relate to lifestyle and attitudes, media consumption habits (including TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, cinema, catalogues, pay TV and the Internet), brand and product usage, purchase intentions, retail visitations, service provider preferences, financial information and recreation and leisure activities. This lead product is supported by a nationally networked, consultancy-orientated market research capability.
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