Wednesday, June 12th, 2013 - Roy Morgan Research

Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP (56%, up 1% in a week) increasing their strong lead over the ALP (44%, down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis. The result comes as renewed leadership speculation involving former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has struck the Gillard Government only three months out from the announced Federal Election date – September 14, 2013.

Last weekend’s Morgan Poll shows support for the L-NP at 56%, up 1% in a week (since May 31-June 2, 2013) cf. ALP 44% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the multi-mode weekly Morgan Poll.

The L-NP primary vote is 46% (up 0.5%) now further ahead of the ALP 31% (down 0.5%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 9.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/ Others is 13.5% (unchanged). Support for Katter’s Australian Party is 3% while support for the Palmer United Party is 2.5%.

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would win the election easily according to today’s multi-mode weekly Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, June 7-10, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,369 Australian electors aged 18+.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 98.5pts with 40% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 41.5% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Today’s Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is 115.1 (down 1.3pts in a week, and down 4.2pts in a month). Full release out later today. Today’s Roy Morgan May Business Confidence is also down, dropping to 113.8 (down 6.2pts in a month).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP (56%, up 1% in a week) increasing their strong lead over the ALP (44%, down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis. The result comes as renewed leadership speculation involving former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has struck the Gillard Government only three months out from the announced Federal Election date – September 14, 2013.

“Although Rudd has consistently stated that he will not challenge Gillard for the leadership – Rudd was comprehensively defeated 71-31 the last time a leadership spill was put to a vote in February 2012, there is no doubt several Rudd supporters are still keen to see a change of leader before the Federal Election.

“However, the ongoing leadership speculation in the Federal Government will not impress Australian electors who have ‘seen it all before’, and will only serve to strengthen the lead of the L-NP which is heading towards a comprehensive election victory. The L-NP’s margin of victory looks set to be the largest since Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser won 54.6% of the two-party preferred vote in 1977 when the ALP won only 38 seats in the House of Representatives.

“However, what should be of greater concern to the Federal Government is that both Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence are down over the past month.”

View the full release here

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Shaun Ellis
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The result comes as renewed leadership speculation involving former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has struck the Gillard Government only three months out from the announced Federal Election date – September 14, 2013.

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