Friday, March 1st, 2013 - OVUM

OVUM COMMENT

Julie Kuntsler, Principal Analyst, Components, Ovum

FTTx PON equipment vendors are pushing for adoption in new markets given the mixed results of 2012. PON ONT/ONU (CPE) grew by 43 percent between 2011 and 2012, reaching 40.3 million units, as more subscribers were brought onto FTTx networks. Total OLT port shipments reached just over 4.1 million, a decline of 9 percent versus 2011. The decline was due to maturing EPON network builds in China, Japan and Korea. This decline was not offset fully by large GPON network builds throughout the world. Shipments of total PON OLT port market will continue to decline unless there are major GPON network builds in India, Indonesia, Brazil and/or Russia.

We began to see the use of PON in wireless backhaul, particularly for small cell sites where there is technical fit and geographic overlap. We are also seeing PON deployments for enterprise optical LAN. Next-Gen PON’s numbers will remain small as the need for 10G PON in FTTB MDU deployments is fading away, leaving wireless-backhaul and enterprise as possible markets.

Based on 2012 OLT port shipments, ZTE held 42 percent market share, followed by Huawei with 36 percent and Alcatel-Lucent with 8 percent. For the 2012 PON ONT/ONU market, ZTE held 32 percent, followed by Huawei with 31 percent and Alcatel-Lucent with 15 percent. Alcatel-Lucent gained market share in both the OLT port and the ONT/ONU markets between 2011 and 2012. We expect Calix to remain a strong 2nd tier vendor in NA due to municipal/regional deployments and to increase share outside of NA, based on its acquisition of Ericsson’s GPON business.

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