Friday, September 14th, 2012 - Roy Morgan Research
According to the latest Roy Morgan Leading Indicators Report for August 2012, an estimated 2,206,000 Australians (excluding fleet government & rental buyers) are intending to buy a new car in the next 4 years. This is down on the July result of 2,253,000 but remains well above the long-term average1 of 2,082,000. These results come from the Roy Morgan Single Source survey of over 50,000 interviews annually.
In the shorter term, an estimated 589,000 Australians intend to buy a new car in the next 12 months a decline of 37,000 vehicles since the July 2012 figure of 626,000 and has fallen below the long-term average2 of 616,000.

New Car Buying Intention

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia): April 2002 – August 2012, (average quarterly sample n = 13,677). 1Long Term Average = Four year new car buying intention, April 2002 – August 2012. 2Long Term Average = One year new car buying intention, April 2002 – August 2012.

Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan Research, says:
“While the four year intention is still well above the long-term average, the 12 month intention has continued its recent decline, reporting the lowest figure since September 2010. Despite another strong month in new vehicle sales for August, a declining short term intention result does not bode particularly well for the final few months of the year and it will be up to manufacturers to ensure sales do not decline over the remainder of 2012.

“In terms of which volume segments are driving the overall decline in short term intentions, the number of people in the market for a ‘Medium, under $60K’ vehicle has almost halved since May, whilst the ‘Large, under $70K’ segment continues its long term decline with only 8.1% of short term intentions.

“The total passenger vehicle category is down by almost 100,000 units since May this year, with only one segment showing any positive signs. The Sports < $80K segment has more than doubled over the last three months, with almost all the gains to be attributed to the recently introduced Toyota 86 & Subaru BRZ.”

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Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state of Australia, as well as in New Zealand, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

In Australia, Roy Morgan Research is considered to be the authoritative source of information on financial behaviour, readership, voting intentions and consumer confidence. Roy Morgan Research is a specialist in recontact customised surveys which provide invaluable and effective qualitative and quantitative information regarding customers and target markets.
Alex Dalidakis
P: +61 3 9224 5209


Automotive, Cars, Buying Intention, Auto



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